Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 89

New York Giants 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

(3:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to TB 46, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Palmer ran ob at NYG 39 for 15 yards (82-D.Bellinger).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.70 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model