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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 16-T.Gill punts 33 yards to NYG 10, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.08 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP