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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 51

New York Giants 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model