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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 71

New York Giants 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 6-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to TB 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model