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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to GB 22, Center-46-T.Pepper. 11-J.Reed pushed ob at GB 29 for 7 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.85 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model