Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(5:03) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to GB 19, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.89 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model