Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Green Bay Packers 38

(3:24) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass short left to 15-J.Jennings to SF 38 for 3 yards (33-E.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.53 EP
52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model