Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 24 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(12:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to SF 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-R.Pearsall.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model