Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 24 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:54) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to SF 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-R.Pearsall pushed ob at SF 31 for 20 yards (58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on SF-35-N.McCloud, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model