Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 19-D.Whelan punts 48 yards to SF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-R.Pearsall to SF 25 for 13 yards (90-L.Van Ness). PENALTY on SF-30-G.Odum, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model