4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Shotgun) 17-B.Allen pass incomplete short left to 23-C.McCaffrey (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.60 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model