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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 19-D.Whelan punts 37 yards to SF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-R.Pearsall to SF 25 for 13 yards (53-A.Mosby).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model