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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields right tackle to CLE 40 for -2 yards (9-G.Delpit, 95-M.Garrett).

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model