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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 18 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 33 for 5 yards (24-J.Porter).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model