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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth ran ob at CLE 13 for 9 yards (12-R.McLeod) [95-M.Garrett].

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model