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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.77 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP