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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model