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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 16

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left guard to PIT 11 for 5 yards (25-D.Elliott). PIT-6-P.Queen was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.99 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model