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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 86

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 62 yards to DET 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-K.Raymond to DET 40 for 16 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.70 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 86, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model