Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to DET 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 41 for 8 yards (59-C.McGrone). PENALTY on IND-83-K.Granson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DET 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.11 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model