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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 9

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP