Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 69

Detroit Lions 21 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to IND 9, Center-49-H.Hatten. 1-J.Downs to IND 15 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell). Penalty on IND-48-R.Harrison, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model