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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model