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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 11

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model