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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to MIN 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model