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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 11

Tennessee Titans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 6-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.31 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model