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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to TEN 16, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.33 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model