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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 17-R.Wright punts 29 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 19-J.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 19 for 6 yards (98-B.Richter).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.24 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model