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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 49

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to TEN 2, Center-47-J.McQuaide, downed by MIN-11-T.Sherfield.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.00 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model