Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 3 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 23 for 10 yards (52-J.Williams). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 64, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model