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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 49

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NE 11, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.52 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.11 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP