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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 42-E.Evans punts 20 yards to NE 23, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.42 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP