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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 28 – New England Patriots 19

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NE 11, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model