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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 7

New England Patriots 10 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 7, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model