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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 44

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to LA 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.21 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model