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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 13

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 13-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.10 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP