4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 42

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.52 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model