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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 47

Buffalo Bills 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 8-S.Martin punts 35 yards to KC 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.83 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model