Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Buffalo Bills 30

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard [42-Do.Williams] at BUF 29. 43-T.Bernard to BUF 29 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.51 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -1.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP