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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 14-M.Araiza punts 44 yards to BUF 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington ran ob at BUF 17 for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model