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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to KC 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-M.Hardman to KC 14 for 8 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model