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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(:05) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +3.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model