Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

(9:19) 14-M.Araiza punts 45 yards to BUF 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington to KC 41 for 25 yards (88-P.Hendershot).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model