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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to DET 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 7 for no gain (20-D.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP