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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 2 at the 23
Detroit Lions 52 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 2-H.Hooker up the middle to JAX 20 for 3 yards (93-T.Lacy).
The Three Options
GO
+1.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.45 EP
- 40% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP
KICK
+1.61 EP
- 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
- 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
