Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 6 at the 36
Detroit Lions 49 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6
What Actually Happened
(7:53) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+0.72 EP
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
- 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.68 EP
KICK
+0.47 EP
What Happened
- 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT
-0.30 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
