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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 31

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Detroit Lions 49

What Actually Happened

(9:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at DET 40 for -9 yards (sack split by 99-Z.Smith and 46-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP