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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 14

Detroit Lions 35 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(5:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-T.Patrick to JAX 5 for 9 yards (3-T.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.17 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model