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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 39-C.Little 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.41 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP