Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Detroit Lions 35

(12:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to DET 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.04 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model